讲座主题：Energy Commodity Futures, Country Risk, and Financial Uncertainty

　　主讲人：李建強

　　讲座地点：B237

　　讲座时间：2018年6月28日上午10点

　　主办单位：www.365808.com技术经济及管理研究所

　　讲座摘要：Using an innovative instrumental variable quantile regression technique, this paper assesses whether and how country risk and financial uncertainty exert an impact on energy commodity futures prices (crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas) under different commodity conditional return distributions over the period from January 1994 to July 2017. To gain further insights into this issue, we also discuss whether the correlations change with different dimensions of country risk, i.e., economic, financial, and political, which extant studies have ignored. The results reveal that country risk and financial stress do have a significant impact on energy commodity returns of futures contracts with different maturities, but their direction, intensity, and significance differ, caused by the distinct market situations and divergent channels of country risk. These factors are useful indicators for forecasting future returns in financial and commodity markets and can help evaluate and implement trading activities, hedging strategies, and portfolio construction. These results are important for policy makers who should be cautious when formulating a strategy for macroeconomic stability.

　　个人简介：

　　李建强，台湾中山大学财务管理学系专任教授，美国德州大学圣安东尼奥分校访问学者，研究领域为能源经济、经济增长、金融市场与机构、应用计量。李教授担任多本国际学术期刊的编辑群，包括ENERGY ECONOMICS副主编、ENERGY JOURNAL国际编辑及BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS JOURNAL主编等。李教授取得了多项学术荣誉：山西省百人计划高层次人才、台湾科技部优秀年轻学者研究计划、台湾科技部奖励特殊优秀人才、依据 ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 调查结果，名列21世纪环境资源及生态经济学作者排名第1(共调查6597篇论文)， IDEAS登录学者，名列台湾经济学者TOP 5%。李教授在著名国际期刊上发表了多篇高质量的论文：包括JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS, JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE 等，共发表超过150篇以上SSCI国际学术期刊。